Football Precog Issue 2- Week 5 Sunday Preview, Early Games

First off, to review last night. We’re down to just 2 unbeaten teams after the Cardinals lost in a 17-3 Thursday Night snoozer in St. Looie. AZ’s offense continued to be completely ineffective and it finally caught up with them as the 1 point home underdog Rams moved to 3-0 at home this year and 3-2 overall.

So where do I see opportunity on Sunday after advising no action last night?

– The Packers are 7 point favorites at Indy. This despite being only 2-2, and struggling to nip the winless Saints at home by 1 point last week. The strength of the Packers has always been an explosive passing offense. However this year the Packers rank 25th in the League with a pedestrian 5.8 yards per pass play, and will be without top receiver Greg Jennings.  The Colts are coming off a bye week, and while they’ve been uninspiring so far this year, the Packers simply should not be giving 7 points on the road anymore.  My model says the Pack should be 1 point favorites, not 7, jump all over the Colts. And while you’re at it, the model puts the over/under at 42.5, which is almost a full TD lower than the posted 48. Vegas still seems to be setting lines for the 2011 Packers, not the 2012 version. Take the under.

– Coming off an impressive dismantling of the Cowboys on Monday Night, the 3-1 Bears are 4 1/2 point favorites at Jacksonville. That’s not enough. My model says the Bears should be 7 point favorites. When the Bears are good, they are usually near the top of the league in points/yard of offense, thanks to a defense and special teams that puts points on the board. The Bears rank first in that stat so far this year, so even if these teams were even, which they’re not, you can probably count on the Bears getting a TD out of their defense or special teams. That means that they’ll win by at least a TD. I like the Bears giving 4 1/2 points here.

– The over under for the Falcons at Redskins game is 50. I think that’s too conservative. Washington’s giving up an absurd 9.1 yards per pass play, and Matt Ryan has been the best QB in the NFL so far this year, with lots of receiving weapons. The Redskins offense can put up some garbage time points thanks to RG3. The model says the over/under here should be 55, and that’s enough of a difference from the posted 50 to convince me that the over is a good play here.

– Staying on the over/under tip, the posted total for the Ravens at Chiefs is 45.5. The Chiefs have been giving up 34 a game by themselves, and the Ravens should have no problem raising that total with their 5th ranked scoring offense. The Ravens can beat that 45.5 on their own, but you get both teams if you take the over. The model puts it at 52, so I’m strongly on board with this play.

– Are the 3-1 Vikings for real? They’re real enough to beat up on a tragic Titans team that has lost by 20 or more points in 3 out of 4 games this year and is giving up an average of 37.8 points a game. Vegas has the Vikings as 6 points favorite, but my model says Ragnar rolls by 13 1/2. This one’s a no-brainer, take the Vikings giving 6.

I’ll be back later this weekend with my picks for the late afternoon and Sunday Night games.  To recap, here’s what I like:

Colts +7

Packers at Colts under 48

Bears -4 1/2

Falcons at Redskins over 50

Ravens at Chiefs over 45 1/2

Vikings -6

Football Precog Issue 1- Week 5 Cards at Rams

I’ve somehow stumbled upon a spreadsheet model that takes very basic statistical inputs and spits out a betting line very close to what Vegas generates. Most of the time. Sometimes what it spits out can be a bit different from what is offered by various betting establishments, so I figure maybe its a good idea to start tracking these to see who is right, then parlay that into becoming fabulously wealthy.

Tonight’s Thursday Night game pits one undefeated team that used to play in St. Louis against a twice defeated team that someday soon will probably also have used to play in St. Louis. The Rams against the Cardinals.

The Cards can’t run, they can’t pass, yet they’re undefeated. How is this possible? Bend but don’t break defense appears to be the answer. Arizona has allowed a league best .042 points per yard allowed, and rank in the top third in the league yards allowed per rush attempt and per pass attempt. Translation is, they’re tough to move the ball against, and when you do, it’s even tougher to get in the end zone. This despite facing Marshawn Lynch, Tom Brady, LeSean McCoy so far this year, all guys who can get it home for six. The one tarnish on the defense’s resume this year was last week’s shaky OT win over the Dolphins, when the immortal combo of Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline put up numbers that made Montana and Rice look like a pile of garbage.

St. Louis is coming off of a nice home win over the Seahawks, who are powerless without the replacement refs. They are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. Reflecting this, the Cardinals have been installed as a scant 1 point road favorite despite their unblemished record.

My model concurs very closely with this line. My numbers have the Cards as a 2 point favorite, with the over under exactly matching the posted 38 1/2. My recommendation on this is that both the line and the over under are right about where they should be so there’s no opportunity here. Unless you’re feeling especially frisky, in which case I guess take Cardinals giving 1 point, since my fantastic machine has them winning by 2.

My advice is,  save your money and watch Person of Interest and Elementary tonight instead, and marvel how much the guy playing Sherlock Holmes looks like a totally transformed human being from when he played Sick Boy in Trainspotting.

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